IEA sees global oil demand up next year even as rich country demand shrinks

Global oil demand seen rising slightly in 2011

PARIS — The International Energy Agency said Tuesday that world oil demand will rise next year fueled by economic growth in developing countries, despite a drop in rich countries’ appetite for oil.

In its monthly report on the oil markets — and its first detailed assessment of the 2011 period — the Paris-based agency said global oil demand for next year should rise by a daily 1.3 million barrels to 87.8 million barrels a day.

That’s a 1.6 percent rise on this year, boosted by a 3.8 percent annual increase in demand from emerging economies such as China.

But demand in rich countries will resume its decline, falling by 0.5 percent compared with 2010, despite faster growth in the global economy. Rich countries are seeking fuel efficiency and Chinese stimulus measures are being withdrawn, the IEA said.

The agency, the energy arm of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a grouping of the world’s richest nations, said its outlook for 2010 is largely unchanged at 86.5 million barrels a day, a 2.1 percent increase from 2009.

“Non-OECD Asia, the Middle East and Latin America will continue to command the lion’s share of oil demand growth in 2011,” the agency said in its report.

The IEA said that delays to new projects following the Gulf of Mexico oil spill have shaved 30,000 barrels per day off both 2010 and 2011 U.S. crude production.

Further cuts could come if wide-reaching drilling restrictions arise from the disaster enquiry, the agency said.

BP robots attached a new, tighter-fitting cap on top of the gushing Gulf of Mexico oil leak Monday, raising hopes that the crude could be kept from polluting the water for the first time in nearly three months.

The Obama administration has issued a revised moratorium on deep-water offshore drilling to replace the one that was struck down by the courts.