New model says Fla. Keys and Miami have up to 80 percent chance of seeing oil remnants

Model shows high chance of oil hitting South Fla.

MIAMI — A new computer model shows oil from the massive Gulf of Mexico spill has as high as an 80 percent chance of reaching the Florida Keys and Miami.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released the forecast Friday. It shows a 61 to 80 percent chance of sheen, tar balls or other oil remnants coming within 20 miles of Florida’s eastern coast, from the Keys north to the Fort Lauderdale area, by on Aug. 18.

Outside those areas and the Florida Panhandle, which has already seen beaches littered with tar balls, other areas show a low probability of oil. The state’s western coast has a 20 percent chance or lower of seeing oil, and parts of southwest Florida have less than a 1 percent chance.